In decembrie anul trecut, Heather Gerken a prezentat cazul crearii unui sistem care claseaza statele si localitatile pe baza cat de bine organizeaza alegerile. Noua sa carte, The Democracy Index , publicata de Princeton University Press, se extinde asupra ideii, argumentand ca datele clare despre sistemul electoral ar putea stimula concurenta productiva intre localitati si, prin urmare, sa imbunatateasca procesul de votare.
In urmatorul extras adaptat din Indexul democratiei , Gerken ia in considerare efectele practice pe care datele privind votul – si lipsa acestora – le are asupra cetatenilor obisnuiti si a punerii in aplicare a politicii.
Spencer Overton nu se potriveste stereotipului unui reformator electoral. Lustruit si profesionist, este mai usor sa-ti imaginezi numitul Justitiei din Armani decat Birkenstocks. escorte prelungirea ghencea phillaw.net Overton isi trage idealismul din mediul drepturilor civile si este capabil sa vorbeasca despre dreptul de vot in termeni agitatori. Dar, cu gradul sau de Drept Harvard si baritonul masurat, este la fel de usor sa-l imaginam in legatura cu directorii corporativi, precum si cu avocatii de interes public.
Oamenii au scris multe despre noua generatie de reformatori. Intreprinzator si pragmatic, acestia evita vechile despartiri politice si ataca probleme cu seful dur al unui executiv corporativ. Ei privesc o varietate de institutii (piata, agentii administrative), nu doar instantele, pentru solutii. escorte masaj academy-of-art-college.net Acestea sunt atat de susceptibile sa apeleze la idei de afaceri – responsabilitate, concurenta – ca valori progresive precum participarea si imputernicirea. Overton, care a invatat candva drept la Universitatea George Washington, intruchipeaza perfect acest nou stil.
Problema lui Overton este ca el lupta pentru schimbarea intr-o lume fara date. Intr-adevar, s-a aflat in mijlocul uneia dintre cele mai mari lupte de reforma electorala pe care le-am vazut in ultimii ani – una care a ajuns pana la Curtea Suprema – si a pierdut in mare parte pentru ca nu avea date de care avea nevoie pentru a-si face cazul.
Lupta a fost peste identificarea alegatorilor – cerinta ca alegatorii sa arate o identitate foto emisa de guvern atunci cand au votat la urne. escorte top www.hd-supplysuck.biz ID-ul alegatorilor a fost o sursa importanta de continut in cercurile electorale. Comentatorii conservatori insista ca o cerinta de identificare elimina frauda. Comentatorii liberali contesta faptul ca cerinta este un efort deghizat de a suprima voturile (in mare parte democratice). Retorica de ambele parti a problemei a fost destul de apriga, o parte vorbind despre alegerile furate si cealalta parte echivaland cerintele de identificare cu suprimarea votului.
Overton s-a inradacinat in aceasta problema cand a fost preluata de Comisia pentru reforma federala a alegerilor, prezidata de fostul presedinte democrat Jimmy Carter si fostul secretar republican de stat James Baker. escorte mioveni g15mods.com Desi cei mai multi dintre membrii comisiei bipartidiste au avut legaturi politice puternice, au inclus o mana de medici academicieni, inclusiv Overton. Comisia Carter-Baker a scos in cele din urma o pozitie pe ID-ul alegatorilor care semana foarte mult ca o afacere politica. Acesta a urmarit aproximativ compromisul care ar aparea daca un democrat proeminent si un republican proeminent s-ar aseza pentru a rezolva ceva cu care ambele parti ar putea trai. Comisia a binecuvantat cerinta de identificare (ceea ce isi doresc de obicei republicanii), in timp ce a cerut statului sa ia masuri afirmative pentru a distribui ID-urile (lucru pe care democratii si l-ar dori daca este obligat sa accepte o cerinta de identitate).
Intelegere sau fara acord, principala problema cu pozitia comisiei a fost aceea ca aceasta nu a fost complet acceptata de dovezi empirice. escorte romania why-pay-more.com Un compromis politic pur poate fi produs fara a intra in contact cu empiricii; o decizie solida nu poate. Desi comisia a facut o treaba excelenta de a acumula date despre modul in care sistemul nostru electoral este condus in multe domenii, acesta nu a fost unul in care a reusit sa gaseasca multe. Dupa cum a declarat insasi comisia, nu exista „dovezi ample de frauda in Statele Unite”. In masura in care exista vreo dovada de frauda, aceasta se datoreaza aproape in intregime escrocherilor de vot absente sau a umplerii urnelor, nu tipului de votare in persoana frauduloasa pe care ID-ul foto trebuie sa o descurajeze. Singura alta justificare oferita de comisie pentru decizia sa a fost aceea ca o cerinta de identitate foto ar spori increderea publicului in sistem. escorte conatanta www.google.co.ve
Overton a facut tot posibilul sa-i convinga pe ceilalti membri ai comisiei sa nu aprobe o cerinta de identificare. Majoritatea avocatilor care contesta identitatea alegatorilor au invocat pur si simplu retorica drepturilor civile. Overton a apelat la aceasta traditie, dar s-a concentrat in principal pe tipul de argumente cost-beneficiu cu sange rece pe care conservatorii le folosesc stereotip. Lucrand cu Centrul Brennan, a incercat sa adune date despre efectele, bune si rele, ale ID-ului foto. Cand nu a reusit sa-si schimbe parerea majoritatii, a publicat o disidenta cu forta. escorte alba connectathon-results.ihe.net L-am vazut pe Overton la o zi dupa ce lupta a devenit publica.
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N-am vazut niciodata pe nimeni mai epuizat.
Motivul pentru care Overton s-a confruntat cu un astfel de slogan ascendent este acela ca datele erau intamplatoare si inconsecvente. Dupa cum a descoperit, „Niciun studiu sistematic, empiric, al marimii fraudei alegatorilor nu a fost realizat fie la nivel national, nici in orice stat pana in prezent.” De asemenea, nu au existat studii bune cu privire la efectul unei cerinte de identitate asupra comportamentului alegatorilor. escorte is 3tallships.com Overton a reunit cateva numere de baza (cati alegatori nu au un ID, cate voturi frauduloase ar fi putut fi impiedicate de o cerinta de identificare). Pe baza acestor numere, el a sustinut ca ar fi o greseala sa se avizeze identitatea alegatorilor in aceasta etapa, deoarece comisia nu ar putea arata ca „ar exclude nici macar un vot fraudulos pentru fiecare 1000 de alegatori eligibili exclusi”. Dar Overton a recunoscut in mod sincer ca datele sale, stand singure, nu va pot spune ce s-ar intampla daca ar fi introdusa o cerinta de identificare.
Overton si Comisia Carter-Baker in ansamblu au avut aceeasi problema: se luptau pentru reforma intr-o lume fara date. Comisia Carter-Baker si-a justificat concluziile cu singura dovada disponibila: anecdota. escorte titan atmosfeel.com Overton credea ca probele anecdotice au condus comisia sa supraestimeze atat problema fraudei, cat si probabilitatea ca o cerinta de identificare sa o rezolve. Overton nu i-a crutat nici pe criticii aliatilor sai. El a mustrat adversarii identitatii alegatorilor, deoarece „recita in mod regulat puncte de vorbire despre amenintarile la participarea alegatorilor din partea saracilor si a minoritatilor, dar deseori nu reusesc sa cuantifice aceasta afirmatie”. Frustrarea lui Overton cu privire la dezbatere ramane palpabila: „Sunt un academic”, spune el. „Cred in fapte”. escorte lipova kellyclarksonriddle.com
The same year that the Carter-Baker Commission released its report, the Republican-dominated Indiana legislature passed a photo ID requirement in a straight party-line vote. The state conceded it was not aware of a single episode of in-person voter fraud in its entire history, and the legislature failed to do anything about the security of absentee ballots (the one area where Indiana had recently had a fraud problem). “Let’s not beat around the bush,” wrote one of the lower-court judges reviewing the case. “The Indiana voter photo ID law is a not-too-thinly-veiled attempt to discourage election-day turnout by certain folks believed to skew Democratic.”
When the lawsuit challenging Indiana’s law worked its way to the Supreme Court, Justice Stevens, writing for the plurality, upheld the requirement. escorte turda www.achievecraft.com He concluded that photo ID was a reasonable strategy for combating fraud and building voter confidence. What evidence did Justice Stevens cite in support? A funny anecdote dating back to Tammany Hall, the fact that one person had voted fraudulently in a Washington gubernatorial election . . . and the Carter-Baker Report. escorte sect 2 outfooter.com
The problem is obvious. The Supreme Court didn’t have much evidence to cite for its view that in-person vote fraud was a problem. So it cited the Carter-Baker Report, which in turn didn’t have much evidence to cite. The Supreme Court had no evidence to cite for its intuition that an ID requirement boosts voter confidence. So it cited the Carter-Baker Commission, which in turn had no evidence to cite. escorte tgjiu dfwbid.com It’s turtles all the way down.
The debate over voter ID is part of a larger story about reform in a world without data. The story has an obvious moral — whether your intuitions are closer to Justice Stevens’ or Spencer Overton’s, surely you’d prefer the decision rested on data. But it also gives you a flavor for what reform debates look like in a world without data.
Note, for instance, what kind of reform proposals get traction in a world without data. galati escorte incestsurvivors.com Most reforms never see the light of day, as I discussed in the last chapter. The rare proposals that do get traction are those with intuitive appeal, like an ID requirement.
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Middle-class voters are accustomed to showing ID to get on a plane or pay with a credit card, so it’s easy to frame the issue in a way that they can understand. (Think about the only other issue to get traction in recent years — paper trails for voting machines. It’s another issue people can wrap their hands around. escorte de lux baia mare cellphonepower.org ) There’s no reason, of course, to think that intuitively appealing reform is the right reform. But the best strategy for defeat mistaken intuitions — testing them empirically — is impossible in a world without data.
Worse, in the absence of data, reform debates are completely at the mercy of politics. The reason photo ID got passed in Indiana is because it aligned with partisan incentives and the other side couldn’t build a case against it. (Lest you think I’m picking on the Republicans, I should emphasize that Democrats are similarly inclined to oppose photo ID because of their own political interests. escorte grase bucuresti www.kutsal.biz Remember, the Indiana law was passed without a single Democratic defector.) Similarly, when the Carter-Baker Commission announced its position on voter ID, it had no empirical basis to think it was announcing good policy. All that the Carter-Baker Commission could offer was a position that both political parties could live with. Here again, there is no reason to think that “change the parties can live with” bears any resemblance to the change we need.
Just think about how hard it is to referee this fight. escorte galați ivip.pro There are lots of accusations and few facts. The Republicans and Democrats shout about partisanship. Reformers hint darkly about voter suppression. Whether you are a voter or a Supreme Court justice, it’s hard to figure out who is right unless you subscribe to Lev Tolstoy’s wry claim that “among coachmen, as among us all, whoever starts shouting at others with the greatest self-assurance, and shouts first, is right.”
Finally, and most importantly, note that the ultimate referees of this fight — members of the Supreme Court — were hungry for guidance. escorte militari qualitydesign.com The Court encountered the dilemma we all face in the elections context: distinguishing between legitimate efforts to regulate the election system and illicit attempts to hijack it for political ends. The justices were plainly on the hunt for a yardstick to evaluate the Indiana law. Justice Stevens wasn’t the only one to rely on the Carter-Baker Report. The dissenting justices did so as well. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a very good yardstick for the justices to use. escorte porn onegoodwine.com The Carter-Baker Commission had nothing to go on except atmospherics and anecdote. All it could offer is a compromise that smelled like a political deal. The voter ID fight makes clear just how powerful a yardstick can be in election debates. Even an imperfect baseline — a bipartisan compromise unsupported by empirical evidence — was enough to sway the Supreme Court. Imagine what a better metric could achieve. escorte poze wallymarx.com
The story of the photo ID looks a lot like the story of election reform generally. Reform battles take place in a world without data. We know more about the companies in which we invest, the performance of our local baseball team, even our dishwashers, than we do about how our election system is working. The institutions that administer our election system — the linchpin of any democracy — don’t give us the information we need to evaluate how they are performing. The limited data that exist are often undependable, unverifiable, and too inconsistent to allow for comparisons across jurisdictions. escorte 40 ani www.jedana.com It is remarkable that we spend so much time arguing about which direction election reform should take when we don’t even have the data we need to map where we are now.
This essay is adapted from the new book The Democracy Index by Heather Gerken, published by Princeton University Press. Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press.
