16 martie 2018, ora 5:38

Bine ati venit la Pollapalooza, programul nostru saptamanal de votare.

Sondajul saptamanii

Opiniile despre relatia presedintelui Trump (sau lipsa acesteia) cu actrita de film pentru adulti Stormy Daniels sunt impartite pe linii partizane, potrivit unui sondaj Huffington Post / YouGov publicat saptamana aceasta. 70% dintre democrati au considerat contul credibil al lui Daniels despre o relatie extraconjugala cu Trump in 2006, in timp ce doar 11 la suta dintre republicani au spus acelasi lucru. Si daca Trump a avut o aventura cu Daniels, 82% dintre democrati au spus ca ar fi fost imoral, comparativ cu 54% dintre republicani.

Poate pentru ca Daniels este in stire, impreuna cu alte presupuse treburi ale lui Trump, doar 26 la suta dintre democrati (vs. 67 la suta dintre republicani) au fost de acord ca „un functionar ales care a comis un act imoral in viata personala se poate comporta in mod etic si isi indeplinesc indatoririle in viata publica si profesionala. “

Inregistrez acest lucru ca exponenta nr. 3.519.099 in fisierul nostru „Partizanatul este un infern cu droguri”. Ambele parti par a inversa opiniile pe care le-au avut in urma cu doua decenii – cand un presedinte al celuilalt partid se afla la Casa Alba si s-au confruntat cu acuzatii de afaceri si conduita incorecta.

  • Intr-un sondaj CBS News din 1998, 77 la suta dintre democrati au declarat ca relatia de atunci a presedintelui Bill Clinton cu internatoarea Casei Albe, Monica Lewinsky, a fost „o chestiune privata”, care are legatura cu „viata personala” a lui Clinton. Doar 16 la suta dintre democrati au considerat ca afacerea este „o problema publica care are legatura cu meseria lui Bill Clinton in calitate de presedinte.” In schimb, 64 la suta dintre republicani au considerat situatia ca o preocupare publica, in timp ce 28 la suta au spus ca este o problema privata.
  • Tot in 1998, Gallup a intrebat oamenii daca trebuie sa stie daca un candidat la presedintie a avut o aventura extraconjugala pentru a-l evalua – 55% dintre republicani au spus da, in comparatie cu doar 16% dintre democrati.
  • Un sondaj NBC News / Wall Street Journal din 1999 i-a intrebat pe respondenti daca l-au crezut pe Juanita Broaddrick atunci cand a spus ca Clinton a violat-o in timp ce el era avocat general al Arkansas. Doar 13 la suta dintre democrati au declarat ca au crezut in Broaddrick; 68 la suta dintre democrati au spus ca nu. In schimb, 52 la suta dintre republicani au spus ca au crezut in Broaddrick; 25 la suta nu au facut-o. Evident, aceasta nu este o situatie deosebit de analoga in comparatie cu cea a lui Trump, dar se vorbeste despre partizanarea raspunsurilor.

Si amintiti-va ca, atunci, alegatorii si activistii inclinata liberal si membrii democrati ai Congresului sustineau ca Clinton ar putea conduce tara in mod credibil, in ciuda aventurii sale cu Lewinsky. Republicanii spuneau ca afacerea lui Clinton arata o judecata atat de proasta incat nu era in masura sa fie presedinte. Cel putin in declaratiile lor publice, parea sa fie universal crezut de conservatorii proeminenti ca comportamentul lui Clinton era imoral.

Detaliile situatiilor Trump si Clinton difera, dar in ambele cazuri vorbim despre figuri de barbati casatoriti care se presupune ca au afaceri extramaritale. Nu este usor sa impaci ideea ca relatia lui Clinton cu Lewinsky a fost imorala, dar a lui Trump cu Daniels (daca s-a intamplat) nu a fost, sau invers. Ar trebui sa cautam mai multe sondaje in jurul acestor intrebari pentru a fi siguri, dar se pare ca opiniile asupra politicienilor si afacerilor – ca la fel de mult – sunt modelate de partizanat, nu de un principiu care sta la baza moralitatii sau comportamentului sexual.

Alte Nuggets de votare

  • 72 de procente dintre adultii americani considera ca elevii care au participat miercuri la proteste impotriva violentei impotriva armelor nu ar trebui pedepsiti de scolile lor, potrivit unui nou sondaj marist. Aceasta parere a fost de 89% dintre democrati si 53% de republicani.
  • Un sondaj CBS News a constatat ca 42 la suta dintre americani aproba manipularea de catre Trump a Coreei de Nord. Aceasta a crescut cu 8 puncte procentuale fata de ianuarie.
  • Un sondaj Gallup lansat recent la sfarsitul lui 2017 i-a cerut studentilor daca protejarea drepturilor de exprimare libera sau promovarea unei societati diverse si inclusive este mai importanta. Saptezeci la suta au ales sa protejeze discursul liber, in scadere de la 78 la suta in 2016.
  • 64 la suta dintre educatori spun ca s-ar simti mai putin in siguranta daca personalul scolar ar fi inarmat. Acest lucru este potrivit unui sondaj realizat de GBA Strategies pentru membrii Asociatiei Nationale a Educatiei.
  • In a SurveyMonkey poll conducted for Cosmopolitan, 60 percent of young people (ages 18 to 34) said they were either absolutely certain to vote or would probably vote in their states’ primary elections. Less than half said that they have “always” or “nearly always” voted in past primary elections, and only a quarter said they voted in the 2014 midterm elections.
  • In a poll from UMass Lowell, 57 percent of respondents between the ages of 14 and 21 said they had watched a live or recorded video of people playing video games, and 38 percent reported being fans of esports. Just 40 percent said they were football fans.1
  • Only about half of respondents in a SurveyMonkey poll said they have faith in American democracy; 37 percent said they had lost faith, and 8 percent said they never had it.
  • Given a choice of superpowers in a Marist poll, 29 percent of adults said they wished they had the ability to time-travel. Other abilities — each getting between 10 percent and 20 percent — included mind-reading, flying, teleportation and invisibility.
  • Hunting animals for sport, according to a YouGov poll, is considered morally wrong by 71 percent of American adults. The view was shared by 58 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats.
  • The Illinois primary elections are on Tuesday, and a new We Ask America poll of likely Democratic voters showed that 31 percent were still undecided on the governor race. Billionaire J.B. Pritzker led the poll with 35 percent of the vote, followed by Chris Kennedy and Daniel Biss with around 15 percent each.
  • A study in the journal Nature of polling error in more than 30,000 polls from 45 countries recorded between 1942 and 2017 concluded that the perception that polling has become less accurate is unfounded — at the national level at least.
  • Russia is holding an election on Sunday, and in a surprise to nobody, public opinion polls (these are the ones that haven’t been banned, so take them with lots of salt) show incumbent Vladimir Putin easily in the lead. With his main opponent, Alexei Navalny, barred from running, analysts will be looking at voter turnout to gauge enthusiasm.

Trump’s approval rating

Trump’s job approval rating is at 40.

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4 percent, while his disapproval rating is at 53.7 percent. Last week, his approval rating was 40.6 percent, compared with a disapproval rating of 53.6 percent.

The generic ballot

The Democrats hold a 47.7 percent to 39.3 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot this week. Last week, Democrats were up 47.7 percent to 38.8 percent.